What’s Ahead for Home Prices?

As mortgage rates continue to rise, the housing market is beginning to cool off. Experts in the media are speculating that home prices could fall or continue to rise. But what’s likely to happen?

It’s anyone’s guess where the dollar will go from here. But here are some expert projections to help you decide what to do with your money.

What the Experts Are Saying About Home Prices Next Year

The most recent predictions from five industry experts in the field of housing are displayed in the graph below.

These experts have most recently revised their forecasts in light of recent market developments:

Source:ShowingTime, KeepingCurrentMatters

The three blue bars in the graph represent experts predicting continued home price appreciation, albeit at a slower rate than in recent years.

The red bars on the graph represent expert predictions of home price declines.

There isn't a clear consensus, but if you take the average (indicated in green) of all five of these predictions, the most likely result is that home price growth will be comparatively flat nationwide next year.

Experts are divided on whether home prices will appreciate or depreciate in 2023. It all depends on the conditions in your local market, like how overheated that market was in recent years, current inventory levels, buyer demand, and more.

Home prices are expected to return to more normal levels of appreciation rather quickly, according to the latest forecast from Wells Fargo. Although they feel that prices will fall in 2023, they think prices will recover and net positive in 2024. That forecast calls for 3.1% appreciation in 2024, which is a number much more in line with the long-term average of 4% annual appreciation.

Plus, according to the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics, a poll of one hundred industry experts, home prices are expected to increase by roughly 2.6 to 4 percent per year from 2024-2026. This means that even if prices dip next year, it's not expected to be a lasting trend.

As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer for Parcl, says:

"In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt."

When it comes to buying or selling a home, don’t let fear or uncertainty change your plans. Learn more about your options by reaching out to a local real estate professional for the guidance you need each step of the way.

The housing market is shifting, and it can be tricky to navigate. Lean on a trusted real estate professional to help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening in your market.


Call Nathan Walldorf at 423-544-7700.